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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-04-23T05:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-04-23T05:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45789/-1
CME Note: CME whose bulk is seen to the northeast with wider shock seen to due east in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1, and STEREO A COR2 coronagraphs in association with a long duration M1.2 class solar flare from AR4420 near N16E40. The EUV signature is characterized by a circular EUV wave and dimming signature during the eruption seen best in SDO AIA 193 and GOES SUVI 284.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-04-25T19:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-04-26T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 
Radial velocity (km/s): 647
Longitude (deg): 33 E
Latitude (deg): 26 N
Half-angular width (deg): 18

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: SW

Lead Time: 50.97 hour(s)
Difference: -16.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2026-04-23T16:30Z

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